The Price of Procrastination, Payoff of Patience

I have a confession to make, and I’ve felt guilty about it for over 2 years. Only recent developments have alleviated this guilt. Allow me to explain.

In early 2018, a friend started asking me about Bitcoin. I told him everything I knew and he was very receptive to the concept of decentralized finance. He asked if I would help him set up an account to buy Bitcoin and of course I agreed. We met a few days later and I guided him through the process of setting up a Kraken account. The next step was for him to allocate funds to his account. This involves a trip to the bank to wire funds, then a holding period to ensure the funds transferred successfully. He decided he wanted to start with $2,000 which was a lot for him at the time.

A few days later he told me his funds transferred successfully and he’s ready to make the purchase but his schedule is a little crazy so he’s not sure when I could come over.

Anyone who recalls the history of crypto prices in early 2018 knows it was very volatile – crashing down from the highs of Christmas 2017 at $20,000, prices fluctuated thousands of dollars a day.

A week lapsed since my friend’s commitment to purchase, and in that week, Bitcoin’s price plummeted to $5,000. I called him and told him this is the time to buy – his money would go far. He was excited and said he’d call me back with a good time for me to come over and help him make the purchase. Days passed and he didn’t call. I called him again and told him the prices can jump quickly and he may miss a good opportunity to get the best price for his purchase. He thanked me for keeping him in the loop but still wasn’t ready for me to come over.

Over 10 days later, he finally invited me over to help him buy his Bitcoin. Unfortunately the price doubled to $10,000. I struggled with the ethics of letting him buy at (what I considered at the time) a high price versus waiting for the price to fall again and then attempting to coordinate a time with him that coincided with a price fall. I’m embarrassed to admit I took the easy way out and let him spend his $2,000 on Bitcoin at $10,000. He owned 1/5 of a Bitcoin and was elated, but it haunted me knowing that he could have owned almost 1/2 of a Bitcoin if he would have not waited, or if I had the fortitude to tell him to wait for another price correction.

Months later the price crashed to $3,000 and held at that price for a long time. He could have had 2/3 of a Bitcoin if I talked him out of buying when he was ready but the price was $10,000.

Of course I didn’t have a crystal ball. I had no way of knowing the price would crash to $3,000 – it could have bounced back to $20,000 or higher. I felt responsible for not guiding him the way I would have guided myself, but he being oblivious to the price differential was a weak comfort I clung to while prices remained well under $10,000 for over two years.

During the fall of 2020, Bitcoin prices suddenly started climbing back to $10,000, then over $10,000, then toward $20,000 and I finally felt relief that my friend’s investment finally paid off. His $2,000 investment more than doubled. Presently the price is close to $40,000 yielding him a quadruple payoff on his investment.

The moral of the story is this: When someone you trust tells you to make your purchase NOW, it’s a good idea to stop what you’re doing and follow their advice. But the fact that this friend was otherwise disengaged from trading crypto, protected him from the urge to sell at a loss and miss the opportunity to benefit from a long term HODL.

Great Analysis of Bitcoin Price Crash

There’s no shortage of bloggers’ opinions on trends in Bitcoin (or any crypto) prices. I am a fan of Mark E Jeftovic’s Guerrilla Capitalism  blog. His post from Feb 7, 2018 about Bitcoin’s “Trough of Disillusionment” I found well researched, comprehensible, and highly enlightening.

It discusses the pattern of Bitcoin’s seemingly wild and allegedly “unpredictable” price fluctuations. The author’s thesis is that these fluctuations are not “unpredictable” at all, and in fact follow a fairly established pattern known as the “Hype Cycle” which can be depicted as:

This analysis helps clarify the price movements and (I think) provides comfort that things are not spinning out of control, they are just following a natural course of behavior. And to continue to hold on for the Slope of Enlightenment to reach the desired destination: Plateau of Productivity.

The Price of Procrastination (But Alas…)

Procrastination hurt me in my Bitcoin purchase. I wanted to buy in at $44. I meant to buy in at $500, then at $700. I tried to buy in at $2,000, and I ended up buying in at $3,909.

The first time I heard about Bitcoin it was $44. Research indicates that must have been January/February of 2013. I probably read about it in a waiting room’s Wired magazine. I remember thinking “I should buy 10 Bitcoins”. But at that time, $440 was a lot (my spouse and I had 2 babies and were recovering from the Great Recession). I don’t know why I came up with “10” and not “1” or “5” which would have been more economically reasonable at the time.

Also, back then I wasn’t sure WHAT I would be purchasing if I bought Bitcoin. I assumed I would get a physical object like a casino chip. I also wasn’t clear on WHERE or HOW to buy. I think I googled it and saw there were informal peer-to-peer networks but I wasn’t thrilled about meeting a stranger and handing over hard earned dollars for something I couldn’t validate to be legitimate. There’s something unsettling about spending money on a coded series of numbers that you can’t hold in your hand. So I did nothing. And Bitcoin became more valuable. And I hated that I didn’t buy any.

In 2014, the biggest Bitcoin exchange was Mt. Gox, and it got hacked. All Bitcoins at that exchange were lost.  I felt an odd sense of relief at this news. I was sure that if I had bought Bitcoin, I would have bought them through the biggest exchange. By NOT buying Bitcoin, I prevented myself from losing my $440 worth of Bitcoin. I was smart to procrastinate – or so I thought at the time. Here’s a fun fact: I finally bought in at $3,909.  So even if I did lose all 10 coins in 2014, and purchased them again at the 2014 price, I still would have been far better off. But alas…

In 2015 Bitcoin was $300 – $400, and I thought our family business should start accepting Bitcoin payments. I planned to write a press release about it. It was really a publicity stunt to differentiate us from competitors, but I figured before issuing this press release, we should actually have an account to accept Bitcoins in case someone wants to exercise that option. As you can guess, I never got around to creating an account to accept Bitcoin, so I never wrote that press release. I’m sure I would have bought some Bitcoins at $300 or $400 (probably 10 since that’s my preferred number) and they would have appreciated ten-fold. But alas…

Around 2015-2016, I started following Twitter accounts @CoinDesk, @Cointelegraph, and @WorldCoinIndex to study valuation fluctuation trends. I also became familiar with altcoins like Ethereum, Litecoin, and Monero.

During the summer of 2016 amid the Hillary/Trump presidential campaigns, I felt a strong urge to invest in Bitcoin. I still wasn’t sure how to do it, but I saw there was a “Bitcoin Center” a few miles from me that offered information sessions and a “Bitcoin ATM”. I meant to attend an info session but didn’t. I liked the idea of an ATM but I wasn’t sure what it gave you. It would have taken little effort to travel the few miles to go check it out, but I did not. And the price of Bitcoin continued to climb.

After the surprising win of Donald Trump, the voice in my head screamed BUY BITCOIN NOW. The price was around $600 or $700. I was still fixated on buying 10 Bitcoins, and I had $7,000 available, but I was conflicted: I wasn’t broke like in 2013, but $7,000 is a lot of money if it turns out to be a bad investment. How would I tell my kids they can’t take gymnastics lessons anymore because I poorly invested our discretionary funds?  My spouse wasn’t following this market and maybe wouldn’t object to this investment, but I sure as hell would hear about it for the rest of my life if this lark of mine went wrong.

One morning about a week before Trump’s inauguration, I woke up determined to withdraw $7,000 cash and buy 10 Bitcoins from that Bitcoin ATM. But then I had to join a last minute conference call, and then I wanted lunch, and then it was cold out and  I had second thoughts about the 5% ATM fee because I’d have to take out MORE than $7,000 and that seemed excessive,  etc. etc. etc. So I didn’t do it.

After Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin jumped from $800 to $1,000, then climbed to $1,200. Week after week I watched in horror as the valuation continued to rise. “When it gets back to $1,000 I’ll buy 10,” I said to myself. It never went back to $1,000. In May it reached $2,000. I couldn’t believe how quickly it rose. I hated that I didn’t buy at $700 or $800. I would have more than doubled my money in less than 6 months. Now I’m late to the party and need to spend more to get less.

In June I committed to buy at $2,000, bitter about not using the Bitcoin ATM to buy in at $700. The 5% fee on $7,000 would have been only $350, which is a rounding error on the gains I could have made. But that was the past and this was the present. I was ready to buy Bitcoin THAT DAY in early June. I chose Coinbase for this transaction. I made a user name and password and was ready to go to my bank and finally get this transaction over with. It was then I learned buying your first Bitcoin online takes more than one day. I wrote about this fruitless experience in the post My First Bitcoin. To make a long story short, I was not able to buy in June at $2,000. I wasted a lot of time on Coinbase until I finally moved to a different platform (click here to read this sad tale). I finally bought my Bitcoin at $3,909.

Let’s do some fun calculations. At $3,909 I could have purchased almost 89 Bitcoins when they were $44. I could have just about purchased my 10 Bitcoins when they were $400 each. I could have purchased almost 2 Bitcoins just a few weeks sooner when they were $2,000 each. But I procrastinated and ended up buying 1 Bitcoin for $3,909. If I could kick my own ass I totally would.

Since purchasing, my solitary Bitcoin has increased almost 85% in value. Some analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $100,000. Some analysts predict it’s a bubble ready to burst. Obviously I’m hoping for the former to be true. But if the latter happens, I know I’ve spent the same amount of money on less interesting things, and at least I experienced a part of financial history first hand. I also learned that procrastination is expensive, and I should listen to that voice in my head when it’s screaming to do something.

Let me know about your Bitcoin buying adventures in the comments section. Are you kicking yourself for procrastinating? Or were you able to get in at a good price and ride the upswing?